Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama Close As They Vie for the Democratic Nomination

The latest examination by CNN shows Clinton with a narrow lead in the delegate count when superdelegates are factored in.

A string of recent victories and endorsements from key party insiders have Democratic presidential hopefuls Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton running neck-and-neck in the increasingly important battle for delegates.

Clinton holds a narrow delegate lead over Obama, 1,157 to 1,145, down from her lead of more than 100 delegates a month ago, according to CNN's estimate.

Associated Press has Obama ahead by 26 delegates. Both counts give slim margins in a race that requires 2025 delegates to make an official victory.

David Plouffe, Barack Obama's campaign Manager said in a letter to Obama supporters that it "will demand energy and resources on an unprecedented scale" to keep the victories going in the upcoming contests in Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Plouffe recognizes that the eight straight victories since Super Tuesday should not let the Obama camp take the following states for granted.

But the race for the Democratic nomination remains close. It's going to be a fight for every vote and every delegate in the remaining 18 contests.
The fight for the Democratic Nomination is likely to continue past March 4 primaries especially considering the delegate distribution system of the Democratic National Committee. In addition to the narrow margins the independent nature of the superdelegates prevents the possibility of having a clear and disisive leader, possibly until the Democratic National Convention convenes.

For the first time, polls show Obama leading in popular opinion in Wisconsin. Public POlicy POlling produced a poll on 2/11/2008 that showed Obama ahead 11 points (50-39%). Ten percent called themselves unsure and with Clinton's history of garnering more of the last minute voters if the numbers the state could end up dividing delegates pretty evenly.

Texas still fails to show any polls newer than the IRV poll that shows Clinton ahead, 48-38%. It was last taken on January 31, 2008.

In Ohio, Hillary Clinton continues to carry the state with double digits according to Survey USA. Barack Obama was behind by fewer than 20 points for the first time in any poll but there were few undecided and even with the margin of error Obama is still behind by more than a dozen points in the best scenario. Former Ohio Senator and astronaut John Glenn announced his endorsement of Hillary today which can only strengthen her standing in the state. Obama's only hope is that his wins in Maryland, Washingtin D.C. and Virginia impress future voters.

Pennsylvania also lacks a recent poll. The Franklin & Marshall College/Philadelphia Daily News/WGAL TV, et al, Keystone Poll shows Clinton ahead 20 points.

If numbers continue to look as they are Hillary Clinton will likely shore up her pledged delegate base and continue to show superior numbers with the help of the superdelegate endorsements. Obama must close the gap in the coming weeks to prevent the Clinton push. It will be enteresting to see if the "Omentum" of Barack Obama continues past March 4, 2008.

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